Forty points. That is the number every fan has in their head, and in the Championship it is almost never enough. The second tier has 46 games, not 38, and the bottom end of the table is one of the most brutal places in English football. A club can be a Premier League side one summer and fighting for its life the next.
If you want to test your own club’s chances, you can enter results into our Championship calculator and see where they would finish. Below is the full picture, with the history, the current table and what I think a sensible target looks like.
The Short Answer
Around 50 points is the safe mark in the Championship. In recent seasons the lowest total to stay up has usually been somewhere between 43 and 51.
The long-run average is about 44. One analysis of the last ten seasons, adding one point to the total of the 22nd-placed club each year, put the average survival total at 43.9.
Three clubs go down. The clubs finishing 22nd, 23rd and 24th are relegated to League One.
My view is that 50 is the number to aim for and 44 is the number to hope for. Anyone relying on less is relying on the clubs below them being worse.
Is 40 points enough to stay up?
Almost certainly not. The old 40-point rule comes from the Premier League’s 38-game season, and the Championship plays 46. Forty points in a 46-game season is a lower rate of points per game than the same total in the Premier League, which means it is a much riskier place to finish.
The history backs it up. In 2018-19, Rotherham went down with 40 points. A year earlier, Barnsley were relegated with 41. Survivors have usually finished well above that, with Bolton staying up on 43 in 2017-18 and Millwall on 44 the following year. So 40 would have been relegation in most of the recent seasons we can check.
The only time it comes close is in a strange year. When clubs are hit with big points deductions, as happened in 2025-26, the line can fall. But that is the exception, and you should not plan a season around it.
How many points to avoid relegation from the Championship?
Here are the totals of the lowest club to survive and the highest club to go down in a selection of recent seasons:
| Season | Lowest survivor (21st) | Points | Highest relegated (22nd) | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | Nottingham Forest | 51 | Blackburn Rovers | 51 |
| 2017-18 | Bolton Wanderers | 43 | Barnsley | 41 |
| 2018-19 | Millwall | 44 | Rotherham United | 40 |
| 2019-20 | Barnsley | 49 | Charlton Athletic | 48 |
| 2023-24 | Sheffield Wednesday | 51 | Birmingham City | 50 |
| 2025-26 | West Bromwich Albion | 51 | Oxford United | 47 |
The range is wide. The line fell as low as 43 in 2017-18, and it rose to 51 in 2016-17, 2023-24 and 2025-26. That is an eight-point swing, which is a lot of football.
To put 50 points in context, here is what it looks like. Birmingham went down in 2023-24 on 13 wins, 11 draws and 22 defeats, which is 50 points. Sheffield Wednesday stayed up the same year on 13 wins, 12 draws and 21 defeats, which is 51. A single draw is the difference between the two.
I think it is a good reminder that relegation is decided by tiny margins. Both clubs had roughly the same season, and one of them is the cautionary tale.
What is the most points a team has been relegated with?
The highest total in the recent past is 51, set by Blackburn Rovers in 2016-17. They went down on goal difference, level on points with Nottingham Forest, who survived. Birmingham City were also relegated from the second tier on 51 points back in 1993-94.
The other end is just as cruel. Charlton went down with 48 in 2019-20, and Birmingham with 50 in 2023-24. Those are totals that would have kept most clubs up in other years.
It is a good illustration of why goal difference matters at the bottom of the table. If two clubs finish level, the better goal difference survives, and the other goes down. We explain how the tiebreakers work in our Premier League guides, and the same rules apply in the Championship.
How many points did the relegated clubs finish with last season?
Last season was one of the strangest in memory. Oxford United finished 22nd with 47 points, Leicester City were 23rd on 46, and Sheffield Wednesday were bottom on zero. West Brom survived in 21st on 51.
Wednesday’s zero is the result of points deductions. They lost 12 points for entering administration and six more for failing to meet payment obligations, 18 in total, and they became the first EFL club ever to be relegated in February.
Leicester’s deduction is even more interesting. They lost six points for breaching financial rules, and finished on 46. Without the deduction, they would have had 52 and stayed up. I find that remarkable. A six-point penalty was the difference between survival and the third tier.
How many points do you need to stay up in the Championship today?
This is where the season stands, after matches played up to 17 October, with each club having played 11 games:
| Position | Club | Points | Goal difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Watford | 11 | -9 |
| 21 | Norwich City | 9 | -4 |
| 22 | Burnley | 8 | -5 |
| 23 | Derby County | 6 | -11 |
| 24 | Preston North End | 4 | -15 |
If we take 50 points as a sensible target, here is what each of the bottom three would need from their remaining 35 games:
| Club | Points now | Points needed to reach 50 | Points per game needed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 8 | 42 | 1.20 |
| Derby County | 6 | 44 | 1.26 |
| Preston North End | 4 | 46 | 1.31 |
Those are tough numbers, but not impossible. A club that averages 1.3 points a game over the rest of the season would finish with about 50. The problem is that most of the clubs in this position are not averaging anything like that.
The names are striking. Burnley, who were in the Premier League last season, are sitting in the relegation zone. Derby and Preston are rooted to the bottom. The gap to safety is only a handful of points, but the table is brutally unforgiving. A club that wins two in a row can climb out, and a club that loses two can sink.
At the other end, the clubs fighting for promotion are in a very different world. If you want to see what it takes to get up, read our guide to how many points you need to get promoted from the Championship. The top six now also lead to a bigger lottery, which we explain in how the Championship play-offs work.
Average points to avoid relegation in the Premier League
It is worth comparing the second tier with the top flight. In the 20-team Premier League era, the average total of the 18th-placed club is about 35.5 points, which means roughly 36 has usually been enough to stay up.
The 40-point rule does hold up there. Only three clubs have been relegated with 40 or more, Sunderland in 1996-97, Bolton in 1997-98 and West Ham in 2002-03. West Ham’s 42 is still the highest total for a relegated club. In 2025-26, West Ham went down again on 39, a reminder that the margin is thin.
Adjust for the length of the season, and the two leagues are not that different. Thirty-six points over 38 games is about 0.95 points per game. Forty-four over 46 is about 0.96. But the Championship’s safe mark of 50 works out at roughly 1.09 per game, which is notably tougher than the Premier League’s equivalent.
That is my honest conclusion. The second tier asks a bit more of its clubs, and it has more points deductions and more chaos. If you are trying to survive in the Championship, you should aim higher than you would in the Premier League.
My Verdict
Forget 40. If a Championship club is on 40 points with a few games left, it is nowhere near safe. Aim for 50, hope for 44, and watch the clubs underneath you. In a league where a single draw can be the difference between survival and relegation, every point counts.
I also think the deductions are making things harder to predict. When a club can lose 18 points in an afternoon, or six points can be the difference for a rival, the usual rules of thumb stop working. For this season, I would treat 50 as the safe line, and anything below 46 as a gamble.
How many teams are relegated from the Championship?
Three. The clubs that finish 22nd, 23rd and 24th drop into League One.
What is the most points a Championship team has been relegated with?
Blackburn Rovers went down on 51 in 2016-17, on goal difference.
